THE Philippines’ headline inflation or overall inflation slowed down further to 4.1 % in November 2023 from 4.9 % in October 2023. This brings the national average inflation from January to November 2023 at 6.2 %. In November 2022, inflation rate was higher at 8.0 %.
The downtrend in the overall inflation in November 2023 was primarily brought about by the lower year-on-year growth rate of the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 5.7 % in November 2023 from 7.0 % in October 2023.
This was followed by transport with 0.8 % annual decrease from 1.0 % annual growth in October 2023. The restaurants and accommodation services index with a slower inflation rate of 5.6 % in November 2023 from 6.3 % in the previous month also contributed to the downtrend of the overall inflation.
In addition, annual decreases were noted in the indices of the followingcommodity groups during the month: Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 9.0%from.3%; Clothing and footwear,4.3% from 4.8%; Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, 2.5% from 2.6%; Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 4.7% from 5.3%; Health, 3.8% from 4.0; Information and communication, 0.6% from 0.8%;
Recreation, sport and culture, 4.9% from 5.0%;
Education services, 3.5% from 3.8%; and Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 4.8 % from 5.3 %.
Meanwhile, the financial services index remained at zero percent annual rate during the month.
The top three commodity groups contributing to the November 2023 overall inflation were the following: Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 52.6 % share or2.2%points; Restaurants and accommodation services with 13.2 % share or 0.5 % point; and Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels with 13.1 % share or 0.5 %point.
Food Inflation
Food inflation at the national level decelerated further to 5.8 % in November 2023 from 7.1 % in the previous month. In November 2022, food inflation was higher at 10.3 %.
The deceleration of food inflation in November 2023 was primarily influenced by the annual decrease recorded in vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at 2.0 % during the month from 11.9 % annual increment in October 2023. Also contributing to the downtrend of food inflation were the slower annual increases observed in fish and other seafood at 4.9 % in November 2023 from 5.6% in October 2023, and sugar, confectionery and desserts at 1.5 % annual increase during the month from 4.9 % in the previous month.
Lower inflation rates were also noted in the indices of the following food items during the month: Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, 6.9%from7.4 % ; Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 0.5% from 0.8%;
Fruits and nuts, 13.1% from 13.5%; and Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, 5.4% from 5.8%.
In addition, faster annual declines were recorded in the indices of corn at 4.5 % during the month from 2.4 % decrease in October 2023, and oils and fats with 3.1 % decline in November 2023 from a decrement of 2.5 % in the previous month.
Meanwhile, compared with their previous month’s inflation rates, higher year-on-year growth rates were observed in the indices of rice at 15.8 % from 13.2 %, and milk, other dairy products and eggs at 7.6 % from 7.5 %.
Food contributed 49.3% or 2.0 % points to the overall inflation in November 2023. The food groups with the highest contribution to food inflation during the month were the following: Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, with 66.7 % share or 3.9% points; Fish and other seafood with 12.3 percent share or 0.7 percentage point; and Milk, other dairy products and eggs with 9.8% share or 0.6% point.
Core Inflation
Core inflation, which excludes selected food and energy items, decelerated further to 4.7 % in November 2023 from 5.3 %in the previous month. This brings the average core inflation from January to November 2023 to 6.8 %. In November 2022, core inflation was observed at 6.5 %.
National Capital Region (NCR)
Inflation in NCR also decelerated to 4.2 % in November 2023 from 4.9 $ in October 2023. In November 2022, inflation rate in the area was recorded at 7.5 %.
The lower inflation rate in NCR was mainly contributed by the slower annual increase in the food and non-alcoholic beverages, which recorded an annual growth of 3.6 % in November 2023 from 5.5% in the previous month. Also contributing to the downtrend of the inflation in the region was the year-on-year decrease observed in transport index at 0.8 % during the month from 0.2 % annual increase in October 2023.
In addition, lower annual increments were noted in the indices of the following commodity groups during the month:
Clothing and footwear, 2.2% from 2.4%; Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 5.0% from 5.8%;
Health, 2.7% from 2.9%;
Information and communication, 0.3 from 0.6%; Recreation, sport and culture, 2.0 percent from 2.3 percent; Restaurants and accommodation services, 5.3 % from 5.4 % ; and Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 3.7 % from 4.0 %.
In contrast, higher annual increment was observed in the index of alcoholic beverages and tobacco at 6.2 % in November 2023 from 6.0 % in the previous month. The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective annual rates in October 2023.
Areas Outside NCR (AONCR)
Similar to the trend at the national level and in NCR, inflation rate in AONCR decelerated to 4.1 % in November 2023 from 4.9 % in October 2023. In November 2022, inflation in the area was higher at 8.0 %.
The deceleration of inflation in AONCR was mainly due to the slower annual increase observed in the food and non-alcoholic beverages at 6.1 percent during the month from 7.3 % in October 2023. Inflation in the area was also pulled down by the annual decrease in the transport index at 0.8 % in November 2023 from 1.2 % year-on-year growth in the previous month. The third contributor to the downtrend was restaurants and accommodation services with a slower annual increment of 5.8 % in November 2023 from 6.6 % in the previous month.
Moreover, slower year-on-year growth rates were observed in the indices of the rest of the commodity groups during the month, while the financial services index remained at zero % annual rate
All regions outside NCR recorded slower inflation rates during the month relative to their respective October 2023 annual rates, except for Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Among the regions, Region II (Cagayan Valley) still recorded the lowest inflation rate for the second consecutive month at 2.4 percent, while BARMM recorded the highest inflation at 5.9 % during the month.
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